By Karen Appold
It is extremely challenging to produce estimates of the characteristics of the unauthorized immigrant population, but a demographer at Penn State and her team were successful in doing just that when they designed a new methodology and provided estimates that will be used to shape Federal policy on immigration.
Jennifer Van Hook, PhD, a professor of sociology and demography at the Population Research Institute at Penn State, collaborated with James Bachmeier, PhD, assistant professor, Temple University, and Randy Capps, PhD, MP.Aff, director of research for US Programs, Migration Policy Institute (MPI), Washington, DC, to tackle the problem.
Dr. Bachmeier says the main challenge was that there are very little data available on the unauthorized immigrant population. “The method that Jenny (Van Hook) and I worked on at Penn State provided a way to overcome this challenge,” he says. The method took several years to develop.
Dr. Van Hook explains that they, “started with a small data set that included some indicators of immigrants’ legal status, and used it to infer immigrants’ status in a much larger data set using statistical imputation methods. We tested the method alongside several other methods in a paper (published in Demography1). Our imputation method produced accurate estimates and was superior to the other methods.”
The stage is set
In 2013 at MPI’s request, Dr. Bachmeier used the new method to develop estimates of the total unauthorized population and those individuals who were eligible for the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program. By 2014, when the Obama administration began to consider options to expand DACA, MPI’s estimates—based on Drs. Bachmeier and Van Hook’s work—were widely accepted as the best DACA estimates available.
The trio developed estimates based on the data points allowed by the methodology and their assessment of the most likely potential scenarios for broadened deferred action.
In September 2014, MPI published preliminary estimates of populations potentially eligible for deferred action under different policy scenarios. In November 2014, when the executive action was formally unveiled, MPI published updated estimates. According to their calculations, the total population of unauthorized individuals eligible for relief is 5.2 million.
MPI worked closely with Federal policy makers when developing these estimates. Dr. Capps of MPI recalls, “When we published our preliminary estimates, the Department of Homeland Security and White House staff called upon MPI to discuss how many people might be eligible for an expanded DACA program as well as a broader deferred action program”.
Proven results
Van Hook expressed confidence in the results. The methodology was based on real data and findings were published in peer-reviewed journals. (International Migration Review and Demography). “Oftentimes methods are developed without much assessment of their accuracy,” she says. Having them vetted through the peer review process adds credibility.
In addition to Drs. Bachmeier and Van Hook, co-authors of the Demography paper included Donna Coffman, PhD, research associate professor, College of Health and Human Development and The Methodology Center at Penn State, who advised adding a missing data expert to the team, and Ofer Harel, PhD, associate professor of statistics at the University of Connecticut, who served as that expert.
Dr. Van Hook sees the work as a great example of how Penn State research impacts policy. “When we were conducting the initial research we didn’t know how the research would be used or that deferred action was in the works,” she explains. Says Dr. Bachmeier, “As a researcher, it is gratifying to know that your research directly influences policy.” Dr. Bachmeier was previously a postdoctoral researcher for Penn State’s Population Research Institute.
Decision-making principles
Dr. Van Hook maintains that when making decisions, they should be based on experience and data. “There is a lot of misinformation about immigrants and their characteristics on both sides of the political spectrum,” she says. “As demographers, our role is to provide the most accurate estimates possible.” Looking ahead, she sees the need for research on people who are receiving deferred action and how it will affect their lives.
Beyond the utility for the Federal government, the estimates by Drs. Bachmeier and Van Hook are also being used by a wide variety of stakeholders across the country to estimate likely demand for immigration services and to assess state and local impacts of these new programs. “MPI has been inundated with requests for data, and the MPI website has experienced heavy traffic since the programs were announced in November,” Dr. Capps reports. “The heavy use of these data signify that they will continue to be important in public policy debates for quite some time.”
Research for the Demography study was funded by the National Institutes of Health.
Reference
1.Van Hook J, Bachmeier JD, Coffman DL, Harel O. Can we spin straw into gold? An evaluation of immigrant legal status imputation approaches. Demography. Dec. 2014. Available at: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13524-014-0358-x.